The 2010 college football season officially begins tomorrow, as my alma mater - USC - kicks off against the University of Hawaii in an ESPN nationally televised game.
Little did ESPN and even many around USC realize a year ago that this game would be full of drama. Not because of the traditonal strength of the opponent -- Hawaii is a good program, but not an elite one and hardly on the same pedestal as a USC -- but because of the changes that have happened.
USC starts the season with a new coach, under the oversight of a new Athletic Director, hampered by the suffocating sactions handed down by the NCAA thanks to the transgressions of one Reggie Bush back in 2004/2005. It's a team thin in depth, as players leaving the program have left it under-manned. It's a team suddenly with no identity. The Pete Carrol "brashness" is now gone. Lane Kiffin comes to the program with a load of negative baggage associated with his being fired by the NFL's Oakland Raiders, and more recently with his jumping ship after one year of coaching the Tennessee Volunteers. His name in Oakland and in the state of Tennessee is mud. And in Florida, too, where Kiffin launched a verbal battle against Urban Meyer, the University of Florida coach, that seldom showed him in the light of good sporstmanship. He's been known to be sour and combative. Will his team reflect that persona?
So what to expect from USC this season as they scramble out of all the pre-season drama? And, more widely, what about the other universities hunting for that elusive national champrionship that USC will probably be stripped of, too.
In my opininon...
While USC has still significant talent from the Pete Carroll recruiting years, it's psyche is going to be an issue. It is a team that has nothing to play for except pride. Pride can be a great motivator, but it can also loose out to the real tangible goal of reaching a championship -- which will be what motivates some of the teams on USC's schedule. They are also incredibly short-handed, and any injury to the front line players could be debilitating.
If USC goes 10-3, it will be a major miracle. The reality is that this is easily a 9-4 or 8-5 team. To the Trojan fans spoiled by success, that record sounds embarrassing. But it's reality check time, and Kiffin will prove something indeed if he can keep these Trojans above water.
With USC completely out of the PAC-10 and national championship picture, this is what I predict will happen as we go thru the season:
PAC 10 Champion: Oregon State. This is their year. Stanford could sneak up there, but OSU is poised for success. Oregon is overrated.
BCS Championship game: Florida vs Ohio State. It will be tough for Alabama to repeat, and while I think Oklahoma has the guns, their schedule will hurt them. Florida will win.
Dark Horse to win it all: Bosie State. We'll see how good they are right away -- they play against Virginia Tech on opening weekend.
Heisman Trophy Winner: If Stanford does beat out Oregon State for the Pac-10, then I'd say Andrew Luck. But more than likely, this is Terrell Pryor's award to lose. He'll win big games for Ohio State to put them in position to win the title.
Finally, USC's record: Same as last year. 9-4. They will lose to Oregon State, Oregon, Stanford and Arizona.
Let's see how right or wrong I am...
