Thursday, September 9, 2010

Roguepilot's NFL Picks for 2010-11


Tonight is the night! Game 1 of the new NFL season; the Minnesota Vikings vs The New Orleans Saints in a re-match of last year's National Football Conference Championship game. Since that game, the Saints have won the Super Bowl and Minnesota has gotten their aginig quaterback, Brett Favre, back for another season. It's a great way to kick-off the season!
Here, therefore, are my picks for the year:
NFC West:
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. San Francisco 49'ers
3. Arizona Cardinals
4. St. Louis Rams
NFC Central:
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Detroit Lions
4. Chicago Bears
NFC South:
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC East:
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. NY Giants
3. Philadelphis Eagles
4. Washington Redskins
NFC playoff teams:
Seattle, Green Bay, New Orleans, Dallas, Minnesota (wild card), Atlanta (wild card)
NFC Champions: New Orleans Saints
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers
2. Oakland Raiders
3. Denver Broncos
4. Kansas City Chiefs
AFC Central
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Cleveland Browns
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Houston Texans
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC East
1. NY Jets
2. New England Patriots
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Buffalo Bills
AFC Playoff teams:
San Diego, Baltimore, Indianapolis, NY Jets, Houston (wild card), New England (wild card)
AFC Champion: Baltimore
Super Bowl: New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl champs: New Orleans Saints

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

College Football is Here Again - Fearless Predicitons


The 2010 college football season officially begins tomorrow, as my alma mater - USC - kicks off against the University of Hawaii in an ESPN nationally televised game.
Little did ESPN and even many around USC realize a year ago that this game would be full of drama. Not because of the traditonal strength of the opponent -- Hawaii is a good program, but not an elite one and hardly on the same pedestal as a USC -- but because of the changes that have happened.
USC starts the season with a new coach, under the oversight of a new Athletic Director, hampered by the suffocating sactions handed down by the NCAA thanks to the transgressions of one Reggie Bush back in 2004/2005. It's a team thin in depth, as players leaving the program have left it under-manned. It's a team suddenly with no identity. The Pete Carrol "brashness" is now gone. Lane Kiffin comes to the program with a load of negative baggage associated with his being fired by the NFL's Oakland Raiders, and more recently with his jumping ship after one year of coaching the Tennessee Volunteers. His name in Oakland and in the state of Tennessee is mud. And in Florida, too, where Kiffin launched a verbal battle against Urban Meyer, the University of Florida coach, that seldom showed him in the light of good sporstmanship. He's been known to be sour and combative. Will his team reflect that persona?
So what to expect from USC this season as they scramble out of all the pre-season drama? And, more widely, what about the other universities hunting for that elusive national champrionship that USC will probably be stripped of, too.
In my opininon...
While USC has still significant talent from the Pete Carroll recruiting years, it's psyche is going to be an issue. It is a team that has nothing to play for except pride. Pride can be a great motivator, but it can also loose out to the real tangible goal of reaching a championship -- which will be what motivates some of the teams on USC's schedule. They are also incredibly short-handed, and any injury to the front line players could be debilitating.
If USC goes 10-3, it will be a major miracle. The reality is that this is easily a 9-4 or 8-5 team. To the Trojan fans spoiled by success, that record sounds embarrassing. But it's reality check time, and Kiffin will prove something indeed if he can keep these Trojans above water.
With USC completely out of the PAC-10 and national championship picture, this is what I predict will happen as we go thru the season:
PAC 10 Champion: Oregon State. This is their year. Stanford could sneak up there, but OSU is poised for success. Oregon is overrated.
BCS Championship game: Florida vs Ohio State. It will be tough for Alabama to repeat, and while I think Oklahoma has the guns, their schedule will hurt them. Florida will win.
Dark Horse to win it all: Bosie State. We'll see how good they are right away -- they play against Virginia Tech on opening weekend.
Heisman Trophy Winner: If Stanford does beat out Oregon State for the Pac-10, then I'd say Andrew Luck. But more than likely, this is Terrell Pryor's award to lose. He'll win big games for Ohio State to put them in position to win the title.
Finally, USC's record: Same as last year. 9-4. They will lose to Oregon State, Oregon, Stanford and Arizona.
Let's see how right or wrong I am...

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Season for Broken Hearts




Fall is coming.

And I can already see the double-meaning of that word. Yes, it is a term that names the season of Autumn. It is also a word used to describe a collapse. In the case of the two sports teams I follow closely, it may be the right word indeed.

Currently, the Texas Rangers sit atop the American League Western Division with an 8-game lead over the Oakland A's and the Anaheim (they're NOT L.A.!)Angels. That seems reasonably safe, considering it's the largest division lead in the majors. But the Rangers have a history of falling apart in August and September, and signs of that are starting to show. Their offense has gone stagnant, managing 2, 1, and 2 runs the last three games on their way to losing three of their last four. More worrisome, their best player (Josh Hamilton) is hampered by a flare up of knee tendinitis, and their second baseman is sidelined with an injury that could keep him out of the line-up for a month. The latest ramification of this is that they lost to the worst team in their division, 3-2, by getting only four hits the entire game. Against a BAD team.

I smell it. The fall is coming. The Rangers are going to break my heart this year, I just know it.

The USC Trojans have already broken my heart. Their fall from excellence on the football field is taking place in front of our very eyes. Struck harshly by NCAA sanctions prohibiting them from playing in a bowl game the next two years (yes, they are appealing), the team is being hit hard by player defections. They are not the feared juggernaut they were for seven years under Pete Carroll, and with a new coach who has won only twelve games in his entire career, the beast that was the USC Trojans is likely to be more a stray cat. All because of the misguided and foolish actions of a few.

This, too, will make Fall a less fun time.

Not that any of this is super important. The war in Afghanistan, the pandemic of cancer that still grips the world, and the latest escapades of Lindsey Lohan make these two things pale in comparison.

But the heart is not a rational organ, so even the inane can become a big thing. Yes, it's August 3rd, and maybe when October rolls around and the Rangers are in the World Series and USC is undefeated and heading toward a big year, some of you will say -- "See, Ralph, you should have more faith."

Believe me, I wish I did. In many aspects.

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Warriors Don't Always Win


Indulge me a moment to talk about baseball on a hot summer day, and to in particular focus on the team I follow most closely; The Texas Rangers.
The Rangers made news (and some noise) when they acquired Cliff Lee, a stud pitcher who last year was 4-0 in the playoffs, to help them win their first division title since 1999. When the Rangers acquired Lee, they led the American League Western Division by 5 1/2 games.
Tonight, Lee pitched his second game for the Rangers. In his first game, he went a full nine innings, taking a loss as the Baltimore Orioles touched him up for six runs. The Rangers lost, 6-0, and their division lead slipped to 4 1/2 games. Lee also pitched a full nine innings tonight, and thru 8 2/3rds of that, he was winning. He led the game 2-1 and was one out away from beating the Boston Red Sox in Boston's fabled Fenway Park. The Rangers, who have a closer that has notched 25 saves, opted to let Lee finish out the game instead of bringing in their fresh, untired arm to close it out.
Lee gave up a hit that tied the game. WITH TWO OUTS!!! The Rangers would eventually lose the game in 11 innings. Their division lead now down to 3 1/2 to the Anaheim Angels (no, that's not a mis-print -- to me, they are NOT and will never be the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim... who came up with that???).
Lee has gone the distance twice since the trade. He has battled and scuffed thru 18 innings to try and give his new team's bullpen a rest while trying to get wins. It has not worked out. There is no doubt he is a warrior out there on the mound. But it's baseball, and the ball takes funny bounces, and so the much bally-hoo'd trade so far is but a mere whimper almost lost in the hot days of summer. Not a titanic game-changer that will lead the Rangers to a championship, as has been predicted by many.
A tip of the hat to Mr. Lee for showing a resilient nature. But a word of advice (like I really know anything about this stuff, but...) to Texas: next time, bring in your closer when you have a chance to end the game. Because if I have to live thru another year of the Angels making the playoffs, I'd just as soon not watch the playoffs at all!

Saturday, July 10, 2010

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Finally checking in to my own blog after a month of silence. I have some things to muse on, in the very trivial and diversion-stealing worlds of entertainment and sports. Just some quick thoughts...


THE GOOD

I beat "Red Dead Redemption's" single player game. It was the best game I've played since "Mass Effect 2," and now I am addicted to the multi-player aspect of it as well. I have found myself many a times at 2 in the morning cleaning out gang hide-outs as if I were a true "lawbringer" in the Old West. So if you're ever on XBox playing Red Dead Redemption's multi-player, look for Rogue Pilot 2 (my gamertag on XBox Live) and I'll be the Lawbringer dealing out justice with my trust .45...



Also, I was very happy to see that finally, after four seasons, "Friday Night Lights" has received the worthy recognition it has deserved since the beginning of its run on television. Its lead actors, Kyle Chandler and Connie Britton, received Emmy nominations for Best Actor and Best Actress, respectively, in a Drama Series. The series was also nominated for a Best Writing in a Drama Series Emmy as well. This has been a show that has been a favorite of mine since it first came on the television stage, and it always puzzled me that its quality was seemingly unrecognized. But not anymore. Good luck to them! They are all competing in tough categories.



Ditto, by the way, to the nominees for HBO's "The Pacific." The mini-series received a total of 24 Emmy nominations, but I am particularly focused on the Best Director in a Mini-Series category, as the directors for Episodes 8 and 9 of "The Pacific" are going head-to-head against each other. While I think that Part 9 was an exceptionally powerful piece, I was more moved by the humanity of Part 8, and it's slight detour from war drama to character introspection and romance.

THE BAD







The unbelieveable circus created around the "where will LeBron James go?" The All-Star NBA player made himself bigger than the sport he plays in, and was aided in this by a television network (ESPN) equally willing to elevate itself above the sport it covers. Both conspired to milk and unravel a drama that at its core was about all the things in human nature we seldom applaud: selfishness, greed and hypocrisy. For two weeks of the "open free agent period," James held court to several teams that came callng to him, seemingly on hands on knees, to beg for his commitment to play for anyone of them. His contract was up at Cleveland, and while the Cavaliers were willing to pony up a lot ... I mean, A LOT... of money to keep him, James wanted to see if he could find a shinier toy to play with. Never mind that Cleveland was his home town, that the fans loved and identified with him after seven years of his playing there, or that the team he played for did everything to cater to his every need and whim -- down to asking his advice as to how to decorate the team's locker room. No, James wanted to see if he could find a new place to play where he could have a better chance to win a championship. ESPN agreed to do a one-hour, prime-time television special that would cover James' final decision. Really? It's as if the movie "Network" was suddenly a reality. The whole thing just left a real sour taste in my mouth for what the business of sports has turned into. It's a "me-me!" world and let's all rally to support that.


The reality to me is that championships are part of your measure of a player or a franchise. The other is how you play the game and who you are. I know that sounds corny, and certainly there is precedent to show that some players of the past have lacked much in character or commitment to their teams and yet have gone down in history as great players. But they are the exception and not the rule. And sometimes, fittingly, they are victims of their own created karma (how's that interception in the NFC Championship game feeling now, Brett Favre?). The New York Yankees have always been pointed to by those who embrace that sports is a business as a clear of example of "buying a championship." But despite the Yankees' aggressivenss in stocking up free agents, its core was always the heart that kept the team alive. Jeter. Posada. Rivera. Pettit. As much as I don't care for the Yankees, they had a core of players who came up together in the organization and who formed the glue that led them to so many championships. It was not the acquisition of a big name at the trading deadline that got the Yankees their rings, it was the guys that came up thru the years and showed up big-time in big games.


LeBron thinks he is big-time. I think he is small-time.


THE UGLY


After four years of "investigation," the NCAA (the governing body that oversees college football) has determined that the University of Southern California violated rules of amateur sportsmanship and thus has inflicted harsh sanctions on the program. The football team at USC is ineligible to play in a bowl game for two years. They must give up 30 scholarships over the course of the next three years. And they must "vacate" all wins in the 2004 season, including potentially the January 2005 game where USC clobbered Oklahoma, 55-19 and won the national championship. It is well documented by those who follow the sport how this came to pass. One player -- arguably USC's best player at the time, Reggie Bush -- received improper benefits from would-be sports agent trying to sign him up for when he turned professional. Bush's parents had a large home in San Diego paid for by these agents; Bush received some cash and airplane tickets for friends to travel to and from football games he played in. The NCAA concluded in their report that USC should have known about this. Bush was the big-time player on their team, with all sorts of attention coming his way. How could they have not known? And they allege that the running backs coach for the school did indeed know about it.
Never mind that the NCAA decided to come down hard on USC, a glittery and attention-gathering program, in order to show their enforcement teeth -- the level of the crime seemed unfit to the punishment. It was not the school that gave Bush and his family benefits. It wasn't even over-zealous alumni. It was a couple of fringe agents looking to score. The school should have been more aware -- well, Pete Carroll as the head coach should have been more aware -- that this was potentially happening to one of his players. And the school accepts this and complies that taking a year probation without a bowl is a punishment commensurate to this crime. But two years? 30 scholarships? Oh, and an even bigger stipulation by the NCAA associated with all of this -- Juniors and Seniors in the program can leave the school and go to another team without having to do the mandatory one-year "sit" that is part of the rules of transferring. Ouch. It's inviting an exodus of players.
The result of all this is that to date, four players have bolted from the program (none of them starters or front-line players), a very coveted high school recruit has de-committed from coming to USC and will now play for the University of Miami, and the USA Today college coaches' poll will not include USC in their rankings every week. This has just stirred the pot of USC "haters" who can't wait to line up and yell from the roof tops the end of the Trojan dynasty that saw 7 straight PAC-10 championships and eight straight bowl apperances dominate the football landscape. ESPN has at least one story a day about the hard times at USC. UCLA and the University of Tennessee (who lost their coach, Lane Kiffin, to USC after Pete Carroll left for the Seattle Seahawks) are absolutely giddy with excitement at the prospect of somebody else's (a rival's) misery.
What's ugly here? The frothing of the mouth that comes with sheer hatred. It is puzzling to me how in a world where we see so many problems because of lack of tolerence or hatred, that in a sport that is supposed to give us an escape from all that, we just continue to unleash our weaknesses as a people. The venom you read in blogs, hear on the radio and see on television seems more like the diatribe of people on a war rant. Why? At the end of the day, the final score in a football game (or a baseball game or a basketball game) will certainly give you a glow of pride in your association with that team if they win, or a cloud of disappointment in they lose, but it is hardly... hardly... a reason to threaten people's lives. And if you think I am blowing that up, just ask Lane Kiffin's wife about the death threats on her cell phone, or the fires started outside her home, within mere feet of where her children slept. Right.
Sports. The new Roman Coliseum gladiator fights.

Until next time...



Sunday, June 6, 2010

An Unfairly Battered Film?

I realize this is the second straight post dealing with a Star Wars film, but hopefully you'll bear with me because I came to a surprising realization:

Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones is actually a good movie.


Yes, I know -- it's one of the "dreaded" prequels. Bashing Star Wars prequels has become as commonplace as iPhone apps. And while there is weight to the thought that none of those three movies ever lived up to the expectations of the legions of Star Wars fans who lived and died by the limelight of the original trilogy, there is also credible evidence that there was some artistic merit to be found in these much-maligned movies.

I found myself watching Clones on a lazy Sunday night with not much else to do. And I found myself, well... engaged. I had not seen the film in a long time, although its plot is certainly no mystery. Still, what seemed to draw me to it was - gasp! - its characters. The film was actually about something, and the characters were truly grappling with that something. What that something turned out to be was the concept of responsibility and growing into maturity (or not).

Simply, Attack of the Clones is a movie about adolesence. It's about the maturing of a confused boy... and, in parallel, the maturing of a confused nation (in this case, the Galactic Republic). If you think of the movie thru this prism, you'll find yourself admiring its construct.

Anakin Skywalker is torn by three things; (1) his frustrating scholarly learning of the Jedi ways, (2) his far-away mother who he misses, and (3) the girl that cranks up his teen hormones and who he would love to make his girlfriend. He's lost in his emotions, and he's trying to find a way out, while being lectured to be responsible about how he goes about this. It turns out, in the end, Anakin lacks the maturity to really cope with his feelings. This fact is obscured and betrayed by his physical and heroic exploits that give the impression he is a being in control. He's not. His mother's death crushed his heart, and he's now driven not to have his soul ripped away as well by losing the girl he loves. He is on the verge of becoming obsessive, which is what will lead to his downfall in the next film. All of this is crafted quite well in the film, despite some infamous bad dialogue ("I am haunted by the kiss you should not have given me" - who talks like that???). But the smattering of less than ideal dialogue still fails to derail the movie from its headlong purpose -- to show a very vulnerable human being trying to do the right thing.

Simultaneously, the Galactic Republic is trying to figure out how to do the right thing for its citizens and member worlds. They have been in a prolonged conflict with a separatist movement that is eroding political stability in the galaxy. To date, the Republic is a peaceful entity with no army. But there are those in the Senate who would like the Republic to react to this separatist threat with arms. The famed Jedi Knights have been trying to hold the line, but even they are not enough. And now there are whispers that the Jedi's old nemesis, the Sith, may be rising again. What is the responsible thing to do here? Especially when it is revealed that an army of clones has secretly been under "construction" for nearly a decade, ordered into existence by a long-dead Jedi operating apparently as a rogue... or perhaps as an instrument of a scheme devised by those seeking power. Power that will be backed up by force... by a shiny new army.

All of this comes to a head in one final battle, in the tradition of all Star Wars films. There's a lot of loud boom-booms, fancy effects, and off-the-cuff comments from the ambulatory peanut gallery of these films -- the droids, C-3PO and R2D2.

But once again, it is the characters that made all of this work, and kept honest to the film's central theme. Ewan McGregor is just plain solid in his performance as Obi-Wan Kenobi. He almost single-handedly picks up the film and carries it on his shoulders. Hayden Christiansen struggles to emote with depth the flooding feelings of Anakin Skywaker, but he manages to get through it without doing a dis-service to the underlying content of his character. And he does rise in one chilling moment where we see a glimpse of the future -- of the being that will become Darth Vader. Natalie Portman as Senator Padme Amidala, Anakin's true love, is at her best here. She fumbled a bit in the first film, The Phantom Menace, and was less than inspired in her performance in the third film, Revenge of the Sith. But here, she really brings this character home, who is also torn by responsibility. From her commitment to prevent the Republic from assembling arms, to her questioning of her relationship with Anakin, she truly shines as a focal point in the story.

So for those who batter this film to a pulp, I say... maybe you're just responding to a popular exercise of poo-poo'ing the prequels and not really seeing what's there. George Lucas had something to say here to his audience, and I think he said it well.

Friday, May 21, 2010

Graduation, Marine Corps, and Empire...


Thirty years ago today, I was a week away from my college graduation, and a week and a half away from shipping out to Marine Corps OCS (Officer Candidate School). With all of these changes and transitions looming in my life, I was spending a good portion of the day with friends standing in line at The Egyptian Theater in Hollywood, waiting to see the new Star Wars movie: "The Empire Strikes Back" on its opening day. I was in line with my buddy, Jeff, who would ship out to Quantico with me as well, and Cathy, who spent almost the entire time studying for a big final the next day (she was a junior, so grades still mattered!).
What was supposed to be a fair distraction turned into a great moment.
Like most of the movie-going world at the time, I had enjoyed and loved the first Star Wars film. In the three years since its premiere in 1977, Star Wars had already become a cultural brand. But that did not mean that a sequel would capture the ingenuity and excitement of that first film. Personally, I had been a bit cynical about sequels, let alone one to a movie that had set such a strong bar right out of the gate. Sequels were not as prolific as they are today, but in the late 70's, the trend was starting. "Jaws," " The Godfather," etc. were spawning a litter of them, and here comes Star Wars with theirs. And when I saw a publicity picture in TIME magazine of a creature named "Yoda," I thought to myself -- "Really? A puppet in Star Wars?" Oy.
My cyncism started to give way to enthusiasm as I entered the theater and the audience started to buzz almost like a concert crowd right before the Rolling Stones come out on stage. I had not experienced this level of anticipation from an audience ever. And when the lights went down and there was a communal holler that deafened the 20th Century Fox logo fanfare, I realized this was no ordinary night at the movies.
And then the movie started.
By the time Han Solo dizzily steered the Millenium Falcon into the asteroid belt, spouting his gambler's idiom, "never tell me the odds," I turned to Cathy and said -- "this is the best film ever." She laughed and said, "give it time to fail."
It never did.
"The Empire Strikes Back" delivered on expectations and then some! How often can you say that of life? It was just a movie, but it was also a great ride. And as we know now, it was the second in a chain of movies that have become part of people's lifestyles. Star Wars is arguably a lifestyle, and its success in achieving this status would not have happened if Empire had sucked.
A week later, my parents flew out from Miami, FL to watch me get my diploma after four years at USC, which cost them a hearty $30,000. (This year, my son graduated from USC and the tally for that was $200,000! Oh, inflation, thou art a harsh mistress! Thank you, Financial Aid!) Three days after that, I was on a Delta Airlines jet headed for Washington DC, and the Marines.
Thirty years ago this week.
My parents have since passed away. My brief stint in the Corps is a memory. But The Empire Strikes Back is still very much a part of my geek-leaning life. And I don't regret it.
Why do you think I'm Rogue Pilot????